FINANCIAL IMPACTS OF COVID ON OUR ECONOMY
FINANCIAL IMPACTS OF
COVID ON OUR ECONOMY
The Coronavirus emergency
keeps on altogether affecting people, society, business and the more extensive
economy across the globe. The protection business has not gotten away from its
effect however safety net providers have reacted rapidly to the emergency.
As the more extensive
economy recuperates and reacts to the pandemic, back up plans will confront
various difficulties yet additionally see numerous new chances in the medium to
long haul. The accompanying paper traces various key effects and moves being
made across the business worldwide in light of the Coronavirus emergency.
Experiences from our Deloitte Protection Industry network has given
contribution to this paper and we have joined connections to extra assets on
this subject at the rear of this deck.
The key subjects covered
are as per the following: - Rundown/outline of effects on individual protection
areas; - Exploring the emergency will require strong authority – react,
recuperate and flourish; - Effects and activities taken by safety net providers:
1. Client, monetary and
business
2. Insight, brand and
technique
3. Functional strength,
administration conveyance and labor force
4. Administration, hazard
and controls. - What should protection chiefs, sheets of the board and other
area members be inquiring?
Coronavirus will speed up
key patterns currently in progress in the business; and - Extra Deloitte
impacts on individual
areas
General Protection (GP)
The effect on broad back
up plans will differ contingent upon the items and kinds of inclusion presented
by the safety net providers. The pandemic has negatively affected new expenses
on specific lines of business, like travel, occasions, and exchange credit
protection, and misfortunes from these lines of business might become critical.
Different lines of business, for example, engine and home have remained
somewhat steady. Cases volumes for individual lines (e.g., engine) have
incredibly diminished because of the lockdown.
This isn't accurate from
a business coherence inclusion viewpoint as there has been an enormous volume
of cases started; here, safety net providers need to give close consideration
to likely avoidances in the strategies and government assumptions for a
non-legalistic, supportive of shopper approach in evaluating claims. In some
prominent cases, GP guarantors have offered attributes and discounts to
strategy holders because of limitations.
Functionally, GP back up
plans have reacted generally well in the underlying period of the emergency
with most labor forces working from a distance. There were a few difficulties
with contact focus tasks and with outsider supplier administrations, albeit
these issues have not been no matter how you look at it. Those guarantors that
had created computerized capacity have been in a superior situation to react to
client and delegate self-administration and commitment needs. According to a
speculation point of view, the unpredictability in monetary business sectors
pronouncedly affects GP safety net providers, specifically with government
bonds having been generally unaffected by the emergency.
Life and Benefits
(L&B)
The L&B area has been
affected on various material fronts: 1. With Coronavirus' critical effect on
financial movement and business levels at a neighborhood, territorial and
worldwide level, customer spending power has diminished fundamentally over a
brief period. Guarantors are reacting with installment breaks with an end goal
to stem an expected huge degree of breaches. 2. Combined with the decrease in
buyer spending power is the effect of market instability and general
vulnerability on purchaser certainty and, accordingly, on ability to spend.
Life assurers anticipate that this should convert into altogether lower new
business volumes for a time of dubious term. 3. Notwithstanding the assumption
for lower new business volumes combined with expanded slips, there has been a
critical drop in market esteems and financing costs. The effect of this on life
assurer pay levels sometimes is prompting monetary strain and the need to
consider unpalatable activities, for example, cost cuts. 4. Albeit the
heartbreaking death toll will resound across society, according to a protection
point of view life assurers may not see an enormous volume of life claims as a
large number of those that capitulated to the sickness were of the age
accomplice that might not have inclusion. Nonetheless, there is a danger that
mortality for different partners might increment emerging from dread of looking
for clinic or clinical consideration or the overall pressure of
self-segregation. Functionally, L&B guarantors, like GI organizations, have
overseen well with the underlying emergency. Be that as it may, with
self-confinement runs set up, advanced capacity is becoming expanding
significant because of the idea of L&B items and reliance on specialists
and different middle people.
Health care coverage
There is a wide variety
of wellbeing frameworks across the globe, the effect on wellbeing back up plans
won't be uniform. In Ireland, for example, the public authority has commanded
that private emergency clinic administrations are diverted to help the Coronavirus
flood, while in different nations private wellbeing suppliers have chipped in
their administrations to help the reaction.
This and the authorized
self-seclusion decide have implied that elective methods and interviews have
been enormously abridged and thusly guarantee volumes have decreased for the
time being.
Nonetheless, in the conditions where clients
are paying for private medical coverage yet are not being recognized from a
public patient, it is conceivable that a few clients will anticipate credits or
refunds. Until now, state run administrations have been driving the treatment
of tainted patients and in this manner, signs are that the expense for
wellbeing guarantors might be restricted. In any case, the expanding bunches of
contamination and mortality in nursing homes are a stressing pattern, and the
expected openness to back up plans is muddled.
Comprehensively,
wellbeing safety net providers functionally have encountered a portion of the
flexibility challenges that GP and L&B guarantors have confronted.
Assumptions are that advanced abilities to help distant clinical conferences
will acquire further interest considering self-confinement rules. Medium-term
legislative spending on wellbeing is relied upon to enormously increment
considering the emergency, and the apprehensions experienced across society
might drive higher entrance of private medical coverage over the long haul.
Reinsurance
Reinsurers will be
affected similarly as guarantors, in spite of the fact that their effects will
be more articulated on the segment side for those business lines all the more
vigorously reinsured. On the Life and Benefits business, reinsurers'
assumptions for misfortune will rely upon the advancement of death rates and
what this will mean for their separate generally books of business, given
annuities conceivably a characteristic fence against term life covers.
On the Overall Protection
business, one of the key determinants will be the unmistakable meaning of the
'occasion from which the misfortune is driven from; in the singular reinsurance
agreements and projects, there will contrast perspectives on the definition(s)
and, likewise, responsibility. Explicit provisions and avoidances in
reinsurance projects, and regardless of whether Coronavirus as an occasion is
covered by them, will be under critical examination. A further entanglement is
that because of cultural, legislative or possibly administrative tensions back
up plan cedants may acknowledge paying specific cases (e.g., business interference)
yet the reinsurer questions this position. The inquiry becomes whether
installment depended on broader, buyer and lead centered standards and
assumptions or a reasonable administrative commitment to pay.
It is normal that such
conversations will require some investment to completely resolve. On Medical
coverage business, there will be an assumption at the safety net provider level
that reinsurers will follow relatively any potential discounts concurred between
the backup plan and reinsurer. In spite of the medium-to-long haul misfortune
openings to reinsurers, the essential quick effect on the area is the
continuous harm that the loan fee and monetary market climate is having on the
reinsurers' asset reports.
An emergency, for
example, Coronavirus influences all business areas – yet there are some
one-of-a-kind contemplations that sway the protection business. Anyway, how is
the protection business prone to get down to business to the unfurling
emergency? What are the ramifications across the various fragments of general
and disaster protection? Furthermore, what longer-term patterns may the
flare-up serve to introduce for what's to come?
To assist you with
understanding your openness to Coronavirus, and all the more significantly,
position your business to be versatile notwithstanding this and get ready for
the future, kindly audit opportune bits of knowledge from KPMG Protection
pioneers from across the globe.
Coronavirus puts back up
plans on the road to success to innovation reception
Back up plans drive
towards a more extensive reception of innovation in wake of Coronavirus.
As Coronavirus quickly
spread out across the world, quite possibly the most prompt difficulties for
organizations across sector was to empower a mass change to remote working.
This was the first and most apparent innovative basic made by the circumstance.
In the protection area,
the level of challenge this addressed changed broadly between various
transporters. Some were in a preferred situation over others to impact the
change, because of a higher authentic level of remote working among staff. For
certain organizations, the assignment was a lot harder. However, for everybody,
it was something that essentially must be cultivated.
The availability scaling
challenge
The genuine idea of the
test was not remote working itself, but rather the scale and speed at which it
must be taken on. For most safety net providers, the engineering and foundation
was at that point set up however the sheer volume of synchronous clients was
the perspective that made this excellent. Organizations needed to scale their
Virtual Private Organization (VPN) concentrators, entryways and doors to deal
with the traffic. To manage the expanded volume, frameworks should have been
arranged to channel and disseminate traffic among public and private
organizations; Virtual Work area Imaging should have been reached out from
administrative center to business clients; virtual and actual foundation should
have been increased including using different cloud suppliers to more readily
deal with the pinnacles; upgraded call and video conferencing frameworks must
be quickly embraced.
There were a few back up
plans, in any case, where the test was more limit. Some needed to promptly stop
'the same old thing' exercises and put workers on obligatory leave to lessen
the strain on frameworks. Workstations and other equipment must be earnestly
bought with Administration Work areas working constantly to get ready and
appropriate them, alongside access tokens and passwords where required. Now and
again, non-client confronting staff were restricted from utilizing the VPN
during daytime working hours because of limit limitations.
One more issue to
address, especially relevant to the protection business, was the effect on
outsider providers remembering the seaward assistance habitats for India and
different areas that are broadly used. Much of the time, workstations and other
equipment were earnestly expected to empower staff to telecommute. There were
additionally explicit issues with 'clean rooms' - the protected offices in
seaward communities utilized for the handling of specific exceptionally private
information - that expected to go through quick danger assessments with
exemption handling safely acquainted with permit administrations to be worked
from outside the actual area or the responsibility being moved back inland, a
stupendous undertaking by and large.
Proceeding with need for
cautiousness as the circumstance settles
As the circumstance moves
on, these set-up challenges have now basically been settled. Entire labor
forces are getting to frameworks through VPNs; organizations and staff are
becoming familiar with the better approach for working. This has not come without
some expense - one guarantor episodically assessed usefulness misfortunes of
maybe 25% on certain undertakings that were at that point in progress. Be that
as it may, these misfortunes have begun to reduce as time has elapsed and
groups have figured out how to function proficiently in this new model.
Be that as it may, there
can be no space for lack of concern. The new arrangements set up should be
persistently investigated: are there any weak links in the framework, do any
elective cloud-based conferencing or teleworking arrangements should be thought
of, do get to controls should be loose or do extra remote login records or
certifications should be made? Also, there is the continuous staffing
challenge: is helpdesk limit adequate, and what possibilities exist in the
occasion that key IT staff become sick or need to quit working? Are 'break
glass' methodology set up to permit different executives’ admittance to basic
frameworks if necessary?
An inclining up of the
digital danger
Across all of this,
another central question looms - security and the digital danger. Tragically,
Coronavirus has intensified the current danger scene. To corrupt fraudsters, it
just gives one more freedom to endeavor to blackmail information or get to frameworks.
There has been a fast form out of framework by cybercriminals looking to
dispatch Coronavirus themed stick phishing assaults and to draw focuses to
counterfeit sites. Essentially, the top 'Fast Connection' on the World
Wellbeing Association's site identifies with 'Trick Alarm and Digital
Security'.1 As per news reports, Google has been hindering some 18m Covid trick
messages focused on at Gmail clients each day.2
Guarantors in this manner
need to verify that their staff know about the expanded dangers and follow
conventions to try not to accidentally fall foul of a digital snare. Be that as
it may, the current circumstance likewise increases the danger of purposeful
insider misbehavior. With oversight capacities decreased through remote
working, and the way that the home climate is less secure than the
association's , back up plans (and all organizations) need to prepare for the
danger of digital aggressors and disappointed representatives gathering data
for unapproved purposes. Besides, deceitful movement can spike, since there are
less controls set up to check the harm, installment strategies and eye to eye
contact with specialists and normal cycles set up as referenced further on.
Guarantors need to
recognize spaces of inadmissible danger and ring-fence these; screen the
utilization of non-supported innovation (Shadow IT) and emphasize organization
strategy or potentially any authoritative necessities; and spotlight their
identification strategies on distinguishing circumstances that are probably
going to be deliberate or pernicious.
To put it plainly, a
cautious equilibrium should be struck between accepting adaptability in
exceptional occasions and guaranteeing most extreme degrees of safety and
consistence.
Advanced drive across
business sectors
Similarly as Coronavirus
has constrained guarantors to take on remote and advanced methods of working,
so it is without a doubt set to drive a more extensive speed increase of
innovation reception across the business. This is a pattern, obviously, that
has effectively been with us for certain years: however the current
circumstance will fundamentally assist it.
In China, for instance,
the pandemic has supported the ubiquity and use of online stage administrations
like Ping A's Gathering Specialist, which associates patients and specialists
and gives online meeting administrations, has seen development levels of
approximately 900% since the circumstance began.3 Another stage based
protection model that is blasting in China is common guide, through which
clients pay a little charge to have a place with an aggregate protection
administration - for certain 300m individuals "sharing the weight of
clinical claims."4
Guarantors have likewise
been party to a blockchain course of action in China and Hong Kong (through
which clinical data is divided among wellbeing suppliers and back up plans)
teaming up right after the infection's beginning to accelerate the data stream
to handle guarantees quicker and make speedier installments through the
web-based installments framework, Alipay.5
China as of now has a
mechanically progressed protection area - however different nations and domains
or regions that have stayed more paper-based have likewise expanded their
degrees of digitization right after the circumstance. More data is being shared
carefully, for example, pictures or recordings to help claims appraisal or
handling. Italy's enormous specialist organization, that customarily works
through eye to eye gatherings with clients, must choose between limited options
presently however to embrace more computerized strategies. Specialists and
agents make up around a 85 percent piece of the pie of non-life business, while
direct channels have never hit twofold digits. The circumstance could be a
distinct advantage in this market, with gigantic changes in how business is
finished. The innovation has been there, yet it has not been troublesome. The
Coronavirus circumstance has featured the requirement for change.
Computerized change,
cloud - another scene is coming
In 2008, the worldwide
monetary emergency prompted the re-plan of installments frameworks and cycles
and brought to the skyline new contestants like the fintechs. After twelve
years, Coronavirus will doubtlessly lead the protection area to speed up
business development and shift all the more rapidly from physical to advanced
channels and items, with start to finish computerization and improvement of
cycles from admission through to claims.
Numerous back up plans
have, up to this point, checked out computerized change just at an item level
or zeroed in their endeavors on individual parts of the worth chain (think
Installments or FNOL (first notification of misfortune)). In any case,
presently, there will probably be a more noteworthy acknowledgment of the need
to carefully change across the biological system. We can hope to see a
reprioritization of innovation spend. Most will probably begin by working
in-house where conceivable on what as of now exists - however past that, we are
probably going to see expanded go through with programming sellers just as
possibly more coalitions and organizations with insurtech new companies through
whom advanced abilities (counting more prominent utilization of simulated
intelligence, mechanical technology and computerization) can be all the more
immediately implanted.
Through computer based
intelligence and shrewd computerization, the utilization of IoT and Huge
Information advancements, back up plans will probably be looking to altogether
smooth out and upgrade cycles, for example,
• Pricing: through constant, dynamic, conduct models
• Underwriting: by accelerating information assortment and
hazard evaluation
• Claims taking care of: with drones supplanting the main
notification of misfortune and with cutting edge calculations to deal with
introductory steering
• Policy holder cooperations: which are extremely work
concentrated - through voice and text informing (chatbots) and customized
client encounters
• Fraud the executives: to help identify, foresee and forestall
extortion examples and assaults, with improved criminological abilities to
examine and break down information.
Cloud executions are
likewise expected to increment. Until this point, numerous transporters have
just been fiddling with cloud administrations, maybe stopped from huge scope
reception by the vulnerability of variable utilization costs contrasted with
the proper expenses of running on premise servers. However, presently, the need
of empowering quick and responsive 'access from anyplace' will probably prevail
upon those worries - regardless of whether a few safety net providers are
probably going to decide on a half and half model.
There could likewise be
consequences for the way that transporters interface with and run their
associations with free specialists and intermediaries just as sellers and
outsourcers. The circumstance is showing numerous back up plans that these
outside parties are not generally as innovatively tough as they might have
accepted, with their frameworks battling to confront the interruption. For
specialists and agents, along these lines, we are probably going to see safety
net providers putting more in establishing a start to finish climate through
which to collaborate. With sellers and outsourcers, the circumstance is
uncovering, as a rule, that transporters didn't in every case completely like
the degree of their reliance on these outsiders and how well these outsiders
were ready with their own business congruity. They are presently looking all
the more carefully at various outsiders' capacities during the circumstance and
testing the business coherence viewpoints that might have been legally
committed yet never really approved. We can hope to see some legitimization of
outsider conditions accordingly, with more basic way exercises being in-sourced
all things considered.
A reminder that sets out
freedom
Emerging from the
emergency, the area could look essentially changed: substantially more spry,
secure, associated and carefully empowered. It is the guarantors that finish
what has been started and keep up the speed with this change that are probably
going to be the champs; those that fall back to the old ways are probably going
to lose market offer.
Maybe, to be sure,
Coronavirus was the advanced reminder the business required. Presently, the
chance is there for the people who can to acquire esteem from it for their
association.
Financial Outcomes of the
Coronavirus Episode: the Requirement for Pestilence Readiness
Coronavirus isn't just a
worldwide pandemic and general wellbeing emergency; it has additionally
seriously impacted the worldwide economy and monetary business sectors. Huge
decreases in pay, an ascent in joblessness, and disturbances in the
transportation, administration, and assembling businesses are among the
outcomes of the infection relief estimates that have been executed in numerous
nations. It has become evident that most legislatures on the planet belittled
the dangers of quick Coronavirus spread and were generally receptive in their
emergency reaction. As sickness flare-ups are not prone to vanish sooner rather
than later, proactive global activities are needed to save lives as well as
secure financial flourishing.
Coronavirus and the
Economy
On Walk 11, 2020, the
World Wellbeing Association (WHO) described Coronavirus as a pandemic,
highlighting more than 3 million cases and 207,973 passings in 213 nations and
regions (1). The disease has turned into a general wellbeing emergency as well
as impacted the worldwide economy. Critical financial effect has as of now
happened across the globe because of decreased efficiency, death toll, business
terminations, exchange interruption, and destruction of the travel industry.
Coronavirus might be just a "awaken" call for worldwide pioneers to
heighten collaboration on pandemic readiness and give the vital financing to
global aggregate activity. There has been plentiful data on the normal monetary
and wellbeing expenses of irresistible illness episodes (2, 3), however the
world has neglected to enough put resources into preventive and readiness
measures to relieve the dangers of enormous pestilences.
With globalization,
urbanization, and ecological change, irresistible illness flare-ups and plagues
have become worldwide dangers requiring an aggregate reaction. Albeit most of
created nations, prevalently European and North American, have solid constant observation
and wellbeing frameworks to oversee irresistible infection spread, upgrades in
general wellbeing limit in low-pay and high-hazard nations—including human and
creature reconnaissance, labor force readiness, and fortifying lab
assets—should be upheld by utilizing public assets enhanced with global
contributor subsidizing.
Global aggregate activity
among state run administrations, non-government associations, and privately
owned businesses has been supported in building and financing mechanical stages
to speed up the exploration on and advancement reaction to new microorganisms
with pestilence potential (2, 4). On account of Coronavirus, such participation
is basic, particularly for the turn of events and creation of an immunization.
The Alliance for
Pestilence Readiness Advancements (CEPI), a worldwide organization dispatched
in 2017, has followed worldwide endeavors in Coronavirus antibody improvement
action and is upholding for solid global collaboration to guarantee that
immunization, when created, will be fabricated in adequate amounts and that
fair access will be given to all countries paying little heed to capacity to
pay (5). Besides, impacted nations might profit from trading mechanical
advancements in contact following, like wellbeing Fast Reaction (QR) codes, to
deal with the flare-up more adequately. Notwithstanding, there are significant
security suggestions that should be thought of (6). On account of Coronavirus,
the aggregate reaction and reception of preventive measures to stop the worldwide
spread were executed past the point of no return, after Coronavirus had as of
now infiltrated different districts through global travel. Figure 1A presents
the elements of affirmed Coronavirus cases and shows that huge nations in
Europe (e.g., Italy, Germany, and the UK) and the U.S. have effectively dwarfed
China, the beginning of pestilence, in the quantity of affirmed Coronavirus
cases.
Notwithstanding the
significant weight on medical services frameworks, Coronavirus has had major
financial ramifications for the impacted nations. The Coronavirus pandemic
straightforwardly affects pay because of unexpected losses, working environment
non-appearance, and decrease in efficiency and has made a negative inventory
shock, with assembling useful action dialing back because of worldwide
production network interruptions and terminations of manufacturing plants. For
instance, in China, the creation file in February declined by over 54% from the
former months’ worth (7). Notwithstanding the effect on useful monetary
exercises, buyers ordinarily changed their spending conduct, chiefly because of
diminished pay and family funds, just as the dread and frenzy that go with the
pandemic. Administration ventures like the travel industry, neighborliness, and
transportation have experienced huge misfortunes because of decrease in
movement.
The Worldwide Air
Transport Affiliation extends a misfortune in carrier income exclusively from
traveler carriage of up to $314 billion (8). Cafés and bars, travel and
transportation, diversion, and delicate assembling are among the areas in the
U.S. that are the most exceedingly terrible impacted by the Coronavirus
quarantine measures (9). The development occasionally changed safeguarded
joblessness rate in the U.S. has as of now arrived at a record level of 11% for
the week finishing April 11, 2020 (10).
Notwithstanding stamped
wellbeing imbalances, particularly in nations without widespread medical care,
the financial effect of the Coronavirus pandemic will be heterogeneous the nation
over's pay circulation. For instance, office laborers are bound to change to
adaptable working game plans during the limitations, while numerous modern, the
travel industry, retail, and transport laborers will experience a huge decrease
in work because of local area limitations and low interest for their labor and
products.
Worldwide monetary
business sectors have been intensely affected by the impacts of Coronavirus
spread. As the quantities of cases began to increment universally, principally
through the US, Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Iran, and South Korea, the world
monetary and oil showcases fundamentally declined. Since the beginning of the
year, driving U.S. furthermore, European securities exchange lists (the S&P
500, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX) have lost a fourth of their worth, with oil
costs declining by over 65% as of April 24, 2020 (Figure 1B). Day by day
information on securities exchange unpredictability and value developments are
acceptable marks of customer and business trust in the economy. There were
critical negative connections between the day-by-day number of Coronavirus
cases and different stock files (Figure 2). The relationship goes from −0.34 to
−0.80.
Bigger monetary issues
are related with the current and likely future interest for oil converting into
changes in oil costs because of decreased financial exercises driven by the
Coronavirus pandemic. Expected overabundance supply was likewise answerable for
huge value decreases. If lower than anticipated oil costs proceed, many
oil-subordinate economies might contract following decreases in exchange and
venture. Shocks to the work markets will be serious, particularly for nations
subject to movement.
Worldwide, traveler
laborers make significant commitments to the work markets, tending to awkward
nature in both high-and low-talented occupations (11, 12). As worldwide travel
limitations and quarantine are probably going to stay for a long time to come
as nations attempt to end the spread of Coronavirus, movement streams will be restricted,
blocking worldwide monetary development, and advancement (13).
Conclusion
As the spread of the
infection is probably going to keep upsetting monetary movement and contrarily
sway assembling and administration enterprises, particularly in created
nations, we anticipate that those financial markets will continue should be
unstable.
There is as yet an
inquiry with regards to whether this unfurling emergency will fundamentally
affect the worldwide economy or to a great extent transient monetary and
financial results. Regardless, it is obvious that transmittable infections, for
example, Coronavirus can possibly cause serious monetary and monetary expenses
for local and worldwide economies. On account of high transportation
availability, globalization, and financial interconnectedness, it has been
incredibly troublesome and expensive to contain the infection and alleviate the
importation hazards once the illness began to spread in different areas. This
warrants worldwide aggregate activity and worldwide interest in antibody
advancement and dissemination, just as preventive measures incorporating limit
working continuously observation and the improvement of contact following
abilities at the public and global levels. As flare-ups of novel contaminations
are not liable to vanish sooner rather than later, proactive worldwide
activities are required not exclusively to save lives yet in addition to ensure
financial flourishing.
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